Predicted improvements in breast cancer survival

This page tells you about the report from Cancer Research UK about improvements in long term survival for breast cancer. You can find information about

Breast cancer survival
The predicted survival figures
Why are survival rates improving?
Where to get more information

Breast cancer survival has been improving for the past 20 years. It takes time to gather statistics and put them together. The information about long term survival available up until now has been based on women diagnosed and treated 10 to 20 years ago. But in 2005, for the first time researchers and statisticians were able to use new techniques to estimate the 10 and 20 year survival of women diagnosed much more recently. These are called predicted, projected or estimated figures. The term 10 year survival is a term that doctors, researchers and statisticians use. It doesn’t mean you will only live 10 years. It means the number of patients who are alive 10 years after they were diagnosed. It does not mean that they lived for exactly 10 years and then died. It does not mean that they were all cured of their cancer. Some people will be cured. In others, the cancer will have already come back, but they will still be alive and so included in the figures.

If you would like to find out more about cancer statistics there is a section with more information about cancer incidence, mortality and survival in the about cancer section of CancerHelp UK. If you would like more detailed information about survival for breast cancer, this is contained in the breast cancer section. There is information about 5 year survival rates and survival rates by stage.

In 2006, researchers at Cancer Research UK predicted 10 and 20 year survival rates for women in England and Wales who were recently diagnosed with breast cancer. The results show a big improvement in long term survival. The figures are for women with invasive breast cancer, not DCIS. The researchers estimate that 72 out of every 100 women (72%) diagnosed with invasive breast cancer will live for at least 10 years after their diagnosis. This compares to 10 year survival figures of 54 in every 100 women (54%) for people diagnosed in the early 1990s, and 64 in every 100 women (64%) for people diagnosed between 1996 and 1998. Projected 20 year survival rates are also much improved.

The researchers predict that 64 out of 100 women (64%) recently diagnosed with breast cancer will live for at least 20 years. This compares to 20 year survival figures of 44 in every 100 women (44%) for those diagnosed in the early 1990s, and 52 in every 100 women (52%) for those diagnosed between 1996 and 1998. The biggest improvements are expected to be in the 50 to 69 year old age group. The researchers estimate that 79 out of every 100 women (79%) in this age group who have recently been diagnosed with breast cancer will live for at least 10 years after diagnosis. This compares to 60 out of every 100 women (60%) in this age group diagnosed in the early 1990s.

There is probably no single reason for this improvement. It is more likely to be down to a combination of factors. These include earlier diagnosis and increased awareness of breast cancer and its symptoms. Breast cancer screening with mammography is a particularly important reason for increased survival. Added to this are continued advances in treating breast cancer. There have been improvements in surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy, as well as hormone treatments such as anastrozole (Arimidex). And the biological therapy trastuzumab (Herceptin) is an important recent advance in breast cancer treatment.

Other improvements in recent years have been the management of women with breast cancer by multidisciplinary teams (MDTs). A MDT is a team of health professionals who work together to decide on the best treatment plan for each patient. The MDT includes professionals such as breast surgeons and cancer specialists, specialist nurses, dieticians and physiotherapists. And another reason the researchers think could contribute to improved survival rates is that more women are going into clinical trials.