Statistics and outlook for oesophageal cancer

This page contains quite detailed information about the survival rates of the different types of oesophageal cancer. We have included it because many people have asked us for this. But not everyone who is diagnosed with a cancer wishes to read this type of information. If you are not sure whether you want to know at the moment or not, then perhaps you might like to skip this page for now. You can always come back to it.

Please note: there are no national statistics available for different stages of cancer or treatments that people may have received. The statistics we present here are pulled together from a variety of different sources, including the opinions and experience of the experts that check each section of CancerHelp UK. We provide statistics because people ask us for them. But they are only intended as a general guide and cannot be regarded as any more than that.

There is a section explaining more about the different types of cancer statistics in the CancerHelp UK section on Cancer Statistics. Unless you are very familiar with medical statistics, you may find it helpful to read this before you read the information below.

Remember - statistics are averages based on large numbers of patients. They cannot predict exactly what will happen to you. No two patients are exactly alike and response to treatment also varies from one person to another.

You should feel free to ask your doctor what is likely to happen to you, based on your current circumstances (this is called your 'prognosis'). But not even your doctor can tell you for sure what will happen. You may hear your doctor use the term '5 year survival'. It does not mean you will only live 5 years. It relates to the number of people in research who were still alive 5 years after diagnosis. Doctors follow what happens to people for 5 years after treatment in any research study. This is because there is only a small chance that the cancer will come back more than 5 years after treatment. They do not like to say these people are cured because there is that small chance. So the term '5 year survival' is used instead.

As with many other types of cancer, the outcome of oesophageal cancer depends on how advanced it is when it is diagnosed. In other words, the stage of your cancer.

Unfortunately, oesophageal cancer has a poor outlook overall. But this does depend on when the disease is found. By the time someone has symptoms and goes to their doctor, the disease is very often in the advanced stages. Because of this it is difficult to find 5 year survival rates for each individual stage of the disease. You also have to remember that statistics are always looking back. Because trials follow people's progress over 5 or 10 years, the statistics can refer to those treated over 10 years ago.

Understandably, the statistics are highest for those who are able to have treatment to try to cure their cancer. Only about a quarter of people are suitable to have an operation to remove their cancer.  Of these between 20 and 25 out of every 100 people (20 to 25%) will be alive 5 years later. That's up to 1 in 4 people.

We now know that chemotherapy and radiotherapy before surgery can improve the survival rates. One trial found that, of people who had combined chemotherapy and radiotherapy, 43 out of 100 (43%) lived for at least 2 years.

Chemotherapy on its own before surgery also improves survival. In the same large trial, 34 out of 100 people (34%) who'd had chemotherapy and then surgery to remove their cancer were alive 2 years later. Different treatments will suit different types of oesophageal cancer. As time goes on, we will find out more and get longer term data from this research.

Because they include people who have cancer that has already spread when it is diagnosed, the overall statistics for survival with oesophageal cancer are lower. Generally, of all those people diagnosed with oesophageal cancer in England and Wales, about 3 in 10 people (30%) with oesophageal cancer will live for at least 1 year after diagnosis. But unfortunately, only about 8 out of every 100 (8%) will live for at least 5 years after diagnosis. Between 6 and 7 people (6-7%) will live for at least 10 years.

There are 2 other factors that can affect your prognosis, apart from the stage of your cancer

• The grade
• How well you are overall

The cells are graded according to how like or unlike normal cells they are when looked at under a microscope. There are 3 groups, called grades 1 to 3. The cells are graded according to the size and appearance of the control centre of the cell - the nucleus. Grade 1 cancer cells are the most similar to normal cells and are called 'well differentiated'. Grade 3 are the most unlike normal cells and are 'poorly differentiated'. Generally speaking, the higher the grade, the more quickly the cancer is likely to grow, although each person's situation will be different.

Doctors also have a way of grading how well you are generally. They call this your ‘performance status’. You may see this written PS. A score of 0 means you are completely able to look after yourself. A score of 1 means you can do most things for yourself, but need some help. The scores continue to go up, depending on how much help you need. This is relevant to survival because overall, the fitter people are, the better able they are to withstand their cancer and treatment.

No statistics can tell you what will happen to you. Your cancer is unique. The same type of cancer can grow at different rates in different people.

The statistics are not detailed enough to tell you about the different treatments people may have had. And how that treatment may have affected their prognosis. There are many individual factors that will determine your treatment and prognosis.

Research evidence shows that taking part in clinical trials may improve outlook. No one is completely sure why this is. It is probably partly to do with your doctors and nurses monitoring you more closely if you are in a trial. For example, you may have more scans and blood tests. There is more information in the trials and research section of CancerHelp UK. To search our clinical trials database for oesophageal cancer trials, pick 'oesophageal' from the dropdown menu of cancer types.